What If......

Continuing with the What If.. series I look at the 1995 AFC Championship game that pitted the Indianapolis Colts against the Pittsburgh Steelers. 

Years before Peyton Manning led the Colts to a Super Bowl win following the 2006 season, Indianapolis made an improbable run in 1995 that almost led them to the Super Bowl.  The team was led by Jim Harbaugh who quarterbacked the Colts to a 9-7 record and a wild card berth.  They beat the San Diego Chargers 35-20 in the Wild Card round for their first playoff win in 24 years and their first since moving to Indy in 1984.  The next week, the Colts beat the #1 seeded Kansas City Chiefs 10-7.  It set up a match-up with the Pittsburgh Steelers.  The year before, the Steelers were upset by the Chargers in the AFC Championship game. 

Harbaugh earned the nickname "Captain Comeback" and nearly led the Colts to victory in this game.  With the ball on the Steelers 29 yard line and Indy down 20-16 with five seconds left in the fourth quarter, Harbaugh threw a Hail Mary pass and the ball came down in a crowd of players in the end zone.  Wide receiver Aaron Bailey had the ball on his chest briefly but the ball fell to the turf and the game was over. 

The Colts were the first #5 seed to advance to the conference title game since the 1990 playoff expansion.  To think that Jim Harbaugh and not Peyton Manning could have led the Colts to the Super Bowl (and maybe even won it).

What if........

Continuing in the series of What if moments takes us to January 8, 2000. Bills and Titans in the AFC Wildcard playoff game.  The Homerun Throwback or Music City Miracle as it is called.  The Bills take a 22-16 late in the fourth quarter and seemingly have the game won. Kicker Steve Christie kicks a short kick and Lorenzo Neal fields the ball. He then hands off to Frank Wychek who then passes the ball across the field to Kevin Dyson who then races 75 yards for the winning touchdown.  The play is reviewed and eventually upheld.  The Titans win the game and subsequently go all the way to the Super Bowl.

The question remains that if the Bills win that game then the Titans don't go on to their miracle run to the Super Bowl.  Some thought the Bills could have gone to the Super Bowl that year. They had a defense that only allowed 229 points (14.3/game) that was second in the league.  A Rams-Bills Super Bowl would have been interesting.  Since then however, the Bills have not made it to the playoffs. 

In that Rams-Titans Super Bowl, if Dyson scores on the final play of the game and is not tackled by Mike Jones of the Rams, that game goes into overtime where either the Rams eventually win or the Titans cap off their Cinderella season with a Super Bowl victory and Kurt Warner never becomes a hero.

Again you wonder, What if..............

What if........

This will be the first in a series of "What If" postings.  It will examine dramatic events in sports history and how it changed a team's and player's fortunes forever. The first posting will examine Kurt Warner and Tom Brady's rise to prominence.

August 23, 1999 and September 23, 2001 are two dates that are forever etched in NFL history.  No one knew at the time what would unfold from that point forward.

August 23, 1999.  Rams and Chargers.  Third preseason game. Quarterback Trent Green of the Rams suffers a season ending knee injury.  The Rams turn to unknown Kurt Warner.  The man who previously was stocking shelves and played in the Arena League and NFL Europe, led the Rams all the way to the Super Bowl where they defeated the Tennessee Titans 23-16.  Warner was the MVP of that game and won the NFL MVP award twice.  He would take the Rams to another Super Bowl as well as the Arizona Cardinals.  Green eventually left for Kansas City and enjoyed six decent seasons but not the same success as Warner.

September 23, 2001.  Jets and Patriots.  Week 2.  Patriots quarterback Drew Bledsoe is hit by Jets linebacker Mo Lewis on a run.  Bledsoe shears a blood vessel in his chest as a result and is replaced by Tom Brady.  Brady played so well, he remained the starter and led the team to their first Super Bowl win (although Bledsoe did lead the Pats to victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC Championship game when Brady left with an injury).  Bledsoe was eventually traded to the Buffalo Bills.  Brady would go on to win two more Super Bowls and win two MVPs along with other accolades.

Two dramatic events that forever changed NFL history.  No doubt that if Green and Bledsoe were not injured, that the Rams and Patriots would not have won any Super Bowls (and in the Patriots case start a dynasty of sorts).

Loyalty

In today's sports, players don't spend their whole careers with one team.  Free agency has greatly altered that and even certain players are not prone to being traded.  A lot of people wear their favorite player's jersey.  Are we showing fan loyalty to the team or to the player or both?  Some people do follow certain players and may wear their jersey or collect their card.  For me, it depends on how that player left the team. The team may want them but the player chooses to go elsewhere.  The team may choose not to sign them and the player goes elsewhere.  The team may also just trade the player away.  I have always put team above the player.  No one player is greater than the team. If a player hits free agency and turns down the current teams offer for a better deal, I consider them a traitor and they are "dead" to me.  With that said if my team signs a player from the outside, I welcome them with open arms even if if is from a rival.

For me it depends on the circumstances but ultimately my team is always first for me and I never abandon them no matter who they let go. 

Are the Los Angeles Angels the Yankees of the West?

A few years ago Los Angeles Angels owner Arte Moreno was quoted as saying that he would like to make the Angels the “Yankees of the West.”  What did he really mean by that?  Was it to more financially like them or market the team like they do?  The Angels have one of the largest payrolls in baseball and have marketed themselves in the Los Angeles area.  The on-field product?  There is no doubt that the team has been successful on the field in winning the AL West five of the last six seasons.  The results?  The Angels have only advanced to the ALCS twice (2005 and 2009).  The Yankees only missed the playoffs once in the past decade (2008) yet appeared in four World Series winning twice (counting the 2000 win and 2009).

The Yankees have attracted top-tier free agents (CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira), and second tier players (AJ Burnett and Nick Swisher).  The Angels have gotten Vladimir Guerrero, Bartolo Colon, Tori Hunter, Bobby Abreu, and Hideki Matsui to name a few.    The only major trade in the past decade was getting Teixeira in 2008 who ended up just being a rental player as he would sign with the Yankees in 2009.  The Angels did trade for Scott Kazmir in 2009 that at the time looked to work but has so far proven to be a bust. Similar to the Teixeira trade was the acquisition of Dan Haren and that could prove be in huge in the future.  With a somewhat depleted talent pool in the minors, any chance for another big trade seems remote for the time being.

So what is Arte trying to do? Is it just a money grab? Is he being cautious with the current economic situation? Moreno was quoted in early October saying that he is “committed to winning” and would spend whatever it took to get the team back to the playoffs. I say that if you want to be the Yankees (and beat them) you have to spend like them. Only then can you call yourselves the “Yankees of the West.”

Warm-Weather Quarterbacks in Cold-Weather Cities- Good or Bad?

Much has been noted of the fact that the Buffalo Bills have been snake bitten by their quarterback drafting the last few years.  The common bond between Rob Johnson, JP Losman, and Trent Edwards has been that they all hail from the great state of California.  The knock is not only how they performed but that they are not suited for Western New York weather.  Jim Kelly himself said that “you look for a guy with good character, good leadership, and good arm strength—and a guy who doesn’t come from California.”  Kelly of course was alluding to the fact of the Bills history with quarterbacks from there.  The fact of the matter is, are the Bills unlucky in drafting quarterbacks or are warm-weather QBs not suited for cold-weather cities?

In looking at current teams, only eight starting QBs come from warm-weather climates and now play in cold-weather cities. They are Mark Sanchez of the Jets, Carson Palmer of the Bengals, Aaron Rodgers of the Packers, Eli Manning of the Giants, Peyton Manning of the Colts, Brett Favre of the Vikings, Matthew Stafford of the Lions, and Jake Delhomme of the Browns (this is Delhomme’s first season with the Browns and he has yet to play in cold weather in Cleveland).  Palmer has had a successful career with the Bengals as he holds many team passing records including the only Bengals QB to throw for 4,000 yards twice and the NFL record for most consecutive games with a passer rating over 100 (9 which is tied with Peyton Manning and Tom Brady).  Sanchez led the Jets to the AFC Championship game in his rookie season. Of note was the Wildcard game against the Bengals where the temperature was 19 degrees. Sanchez went 12-15 for 182 yards and 1 TD in that game.  Rodgers in a few short years has established himself as one of the top QBs in the league. Eli Manning has won a Super Bowl as has Bret Favre who is a future Hall of Famer.  While Manning and Stafford both play in cold-weather cities, they play half of their games in domes and therefore I will count them technically.

Bill Barnwell of Football Outsiders crunched some numbers to see if indeed warm-weather QBs play worse in cold weather than cold-weather QBs.  His study goes back to 1993 and “cold weather” games are those where the temperature is 35 degrees or colder.  The stats were also scaled to 30 pass attempts which is the average number of attempts a QB accrued in an NFL start over that time frame.

The first chart compared cold weather and warm weather QBs in cold weather games.  The edge is slight and nearly even in both groups. Warm weather QBs complete slightly more of their passes but cold weather QBs throw for more yards, have a better average, throw more TDs, and have fewer INTs.  In just isolated cold weather games on the road, warm weather QBs fare better in every category except INTs (1.1 to 1.0).  In his third chart for games on the road in temperatures 36 or higher, warm weather QBs are better in completions and percentage and TDs while cold weather QBs average a yard more.

The theory that warm weather QBs do not perform well in cold weather seems to be false. It really depends more on the player.  Of course this takes into affect where was from and not who he played for. Dan Marino for Miami his whole career and he came from Pittsburgh.  Matt Ryan played his college ball at Boston College and now plays for the Falcons.  Mark Brunell, who is from California and played at the University of Washington, had a successful career with the Jaguars and had two memorable cold weather games when he defeated the Bills in Buffalo in 1996 and the Broncos in Denver in the playoffs.  In the Bills case, it seems to be more talent than the location.

Uncapped NFL- Recipe for Disaster?

Lately the NFL has made news on the labor front with the fear of a lockout looming in 2011. This year, however, marked the first time since it was put in place in 1993 that there is no cap. Some have said that without a cap now, it would be impossible to go back to one. Which brings up a point; with no salary cap in place, is the NFL to become like MLB? MLB does not have a salary cap in place but some teams have lobbied for one. There is a luxury tax (similar to the NBA) where high revenue teams pay in. There is revenue sharing where teams like the Yankees and the Red Sox spread their wealth to teams like the Royals and Pirates. Baseball has become a league of haves and have-nots. With unlimited spending, teams like the Yankees and the Red Sox can shell out big bucks for free agents which leaves smaller market teams like the Royals and Pirates out in the cold.

My fear is that the NFL can eventually over time become like MLB and dominated by certain teams. Teams like the Giants, Patriots, and Cowboys will shell out big money to free agents. Super Bowls may not be won by one league but by a certain number of teams and leaving the rest like Buffalo, Kansas City, and Jacksonville without a chance. Of course the big difference between both leagues is that the NFL has a huge TV contract that all the teams have a piece of and MLB does not.

History has proven otherwise. In the last 30 years, 20 different teams have won the World Series in MLB compared to 14 teams in the NFL, 13 in the NHL, and 9 in the NBA. In the past decade, only three teams in MLB with payrolls over $100 million have won the World Series (2009 Yankees, 2004 and 2007 Red Sox). From 1992-2000, (excluding the 1994 strike year), four times did the team with the highest payroll not win the World Series (1992, 1995, 1997, 1998). In 1997, the Marlins had the 7th highest payroll and defeated the Indians who had the 4th highest. Granted the payrolls then were only in the $45-$60 million range. In the past decade, in fact, the middle payroll teams have won the World Series with the lowest being the 2003 Marlins whose payroll was 25th at $48,750,000 defeating the top ranked Yankees at $152,749,814. A true David and Goliath matchup. The 2008 World Series pitted the 12th ranked Phillies against the 2nd lowest Rays at $43,820,597.

The evidence proves that you really can’t buy championships but can only win on pure talent or even some luck. The fact remains that the NFL, the most popular league in the country, could see its popularity dip with no salary cap and only a handful of teams able to compete

(Information taken from Wikipedia and USA Today)