In his introductory press conference as the President of the
Buffalo Bills, Russ Brandon said the team would build a “robust department” of
analytics that is focused on progressive statistical analysis of the game
(football). In an article published in November 2012, the postgame.com wrote on
Chip Kelly and how he can spark a Moneyball Revolution in the NFL. Kelly was
most recently the head coach of the University of Oregon for four years where
he amassed a record of 46-7 and had two BCS bowl wins. On January 16, he was
named the head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles.
The article goes on to dictate a situation where Kelly went
for it on fourth down. His team was stopped short but Kelly was undeterred as
when the Ducks were again faced with a fourth and short situation, they were
successful and went on score a touchdown on the drive. Throughout his coaching
career, Kelly has consistently gone for it on fourth down. What he is doing
with the fourth-down tries, fake punts, and two-point conversions is making
mathematical decisions based on probability. What is argued is that much like
the Wildcat offense that many NFL teams jumped on when it debuted in 2008,
Kelly’s aggressive philosophy will revolutionize and eventually catch fire in
the NFL. Much like the Oakland A’s and Moneyball, Kelly will do the same thing.
Kelly will take his same philosophy to the Eagles and when he does, the article
states, every coach will adopt his philosophy. The article does make a point in
that it is mind-boggling how the NFL has ignored this for so long.
Chuck Bower and his partner Frank Frigo invented the Zeus
computer program. What it does is take various fourth down situations and runs
as much as a million different conclusions to determine the right play call. Characteristics
like ball position, yards to go, clock, and timeouts are all factored. The
program says that basically teams should be more aggressive and do everything
that Kelly does routinely.
It argues that kicking a field goal on fourth and short is
wrong. It’s “taking the points” and really should only be used in desperation
like 4th and 15. The calculations that the Zeus program uses are broken down
into “Game Winning Chance” or GWC. Going for a field goal on fourth and one at
the 20-yard line decreases a team’s chances of winning by X percent. With a
certain number of offensive plays in a game, every punt or field goal attempt
chosen incorrectly can have a profound effect on the outcome.
The article goes on to say how in 2009 in college football,
63% of onside kicks were recovered by the kicking team when the recovery team
was not expecting it. The New Orleans Saints used this strategy in the Super
Bowl a few years ago when they executed an onside kick to start the second
half. Both Saints head coach Sean Payton and Patriots head coach Bill Belichick
have a grasp on football’s mathematics with Belichick meeting with Frigo and
Bower but passing on acquiring the Zeus program.
Basically the NFL is a much too conservative league and
Kelly’s philosophy should be embraced by more teams . The Bills may employ some
of these philosophies into their organization but whether this catches on is
anyone’s guess. Much of the NFL is a copycat league and it is an aggressive philosophy
which may take a full on youth movement to gain any traction as much as the
older coaches would be quick to dismiss it. It’s also quick to note that Kelly
didn’t win a national championship using this way of thinking so it remains to
be seen whether he leads his team to a Super Bowl win. The Moneyball philosophy
has gotten the A’s to the playoffs but not won a World Series under Billy Beane
yet.
An interesting site to take a look at is AdvancedNFL
Stats.com. It is run by Brian Burke and has apparently been in existence for a
few years now. It is chock full of plenty of useful information like what makes
a winning team and how much does luck play a part in a game. I haven’t looked
through it all but it looks very interesting and it is something that every fan
should check out.
