Sorry for the layoff

I can't believe it has been nearly a year since my last blog post. I'm sorry for the long layoff. Lack of interesting topics, work, and other factors have come into play. With the new year, I hope to have some more posts to share. Stay tuned!

Will Chip Kelly Revolutionize the NFL?

 

In his introductory press conference as the President of the Buffalo Bills, Russ Brandon said the team would build a “robust department” of analytics that is focused on progressive statistical analysis of the game (football). In an article published in November 2012, the postgame.com wrote on Chip Kelly and how he can spark a Moneyball Revolution in the NFL. Kelly was most recently the head coach of the University of Oregon for four years where he amassed a record of 46-7 and had two BCS bowl wins. On January 16, he was named the head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles.

 

The article goes on to dictate a situation where Kelly went for it on fourth down. His team was stopped short but Kelly was undeterred as when the Ducks were again faced with a fourth and short situation, they were successful and went on score a touchdown on the drive. Throughout his coaching career, Kelly has consistently gone for it on fourth down. What he is doing with the fourth-down tries, fake punts, and two-point conversions is making mathematical decisions based on probability. What is argued is that much like the Wildcat offense that many NFL teams jumped on when it debuted in 2008, Kelly’s aggressive philosophy will revolutionize and eventually catch fire in the NFL. Much like the Oakland A’s and Moneyball, Kelly will do the same thing. Kelly will take his same philosophy to the Eagles and when he does, the article states, every coach will adopt his philosophy. The article does make a point in that it is mind-boggling how the NFL has ignored this for so long.

 

Chuck Bower and his partner Frank Frigo invented the Zeus computer program. What it does is take various fourth down situations and runs as much as a million different conclusions to determine the right play call. Characteristics like ball position, yards to go, clock, and timeouts are all factored. The program says that basically teams should be more aggressive and do everything that Kelly does routinely.

 

It argues that kicking a field goal on fourth and short is wrong. It’s “taking the points” and really should only be used in desperation like 4th and 15. The calculations that the Zeus program uses are broken down into “Game Winning Chance” or GWC. Going for a field goal on fourth and one at the 20-yard line decreases a team’s chances of winning by X percent. With a certain number of offensive plays in a game, every punt or field goal attempt chosen incorrectly can have a profound effect on the outcome.

 

The article goes on to say how in 2009 in college football, 63% of onside kicks were recovered by the kicking team when the recovery team was not expecting it. The New Orleans Saints used this strategy in the Super Bowl a few years ago when they executed an onside kick to start the second half. Both Saints head coach Sean Payton and Patriots head coach Bill Belichick have a grasp on football’s mathematics with Belichick meeting with Frigo and Bower but passing on acquiring the Zeus program.

 

Basically the NFL is a much too conservative league and Kelly’s philosophy should be embraced by more teams . The Bills may employ some of these philosophies into their organization but whether this catches on is anyone’s guess. Much of the NFL is a copycat league and it is an aggressive philosophy which may take a full on youth movement to gain any traction as much as the older coaches would be quick to dismiss it. It’s also quick to note that Kelly didn’t win a national championship using this way of thinking so it remains to be seen whether he leads his team to a Super Bowl win. The Moneyball philosophy has gotten the A’s to the playoffs but not won a World Series under Billy Beane yet.

 

An interesting site to take a look at is AdvancedNFL Stats.com. It is run by Brian Burke and has apparently been in existence for a few years now. It is chock full of plenty of useful information like what makes a winning team and how much does luck play a part in a game. I haven’t looked through it all but it looks very interesting and it is something that every fan should check out.

Why the Kings May Just Stay in Sacramento

 

Last month it was announced that the Sacramento Kings were sold for $500 million to a Seattle group and that the team was moving to Seattle. There had been rumors for years that the Kings could move to Las Vegas and two years ago the franchise nearly left for Anaheim. The news was met with shock, disgust, sadness, and anger from many Kings fans. But hold the phone. What was reported as a done deal was not so as the deal was never officially agreed to. Furthering that is the NBA has not approved the sale or the move of the team. With their backs against the wall, the fans and its supporters have rallied to save the team from moving and they might just do it.

The main driving force behind keeping the team in Sacramento is Mayor Kevin Johnson. Having played in the NBA himself, Johnson knows how much the team means to the city. Johnson has been working to organize local investors to pool their money together to buy the team. He already has the backing of several investors but is still trying to land the big “whales” as they have been called to pledge their larger resources into buying the team. Mayor Johnson and his group will get the opportunity to present its proposal to the NBA Board of Governors to not only buy the Kings but also present their ideas for a new arena. It also stands to note that only one other time has an NBA team been prevented to move and that was the Minnesota Timberwolves to New Orleans in 1994. An unprecedented move to allow the current city to state its case to stay? You bet. A mere formality that the team will move to Seattle? Not necessarily.

Another point at issue is the right of first refusal. The Seattle group led by Chris Hansen and Steve Ballmer had agreed to purchase 65% of the team.  This leaves the other 35% with minority owners who as it turns out may have the right to first refusal. Also involved is a potential suit in a bankruptcy case with a minority owner of the Kings who has a seven percent stake in the team.

What bothers me is that from the national media’s standpoint that the deal is done and the team will move. Very little has been noted of these other activities going on to keep the Kings in Sacramento (except for mentioning Mayor Johnson’s push to keep the team). For an alternate and somewhat more positive viewpoint I frequently have been going to the blog Sactown Royalty. It’s a Kings fan blog and the outpouring of support and rallying around the team is overwhelming. There is a lot of resentment toward the current owners, the Maloof family, who have basically screwed the pooch in this whole thing.  These fans are passionate and will do anything to prevent their team from leaving. Recently the blog had put out a link to a petition to save the team.  Being based in Sacramento and what is going on allows the blog to get the sense from the local media and social media to report on what is really going on.

On a personal note, this issue is near and dear to me as a Kings fan. While I am not from Sacramento and do not share the pride that the city’s inhabitants have, I relate to the name “Sacramento Kings” and know that it will not be the same if the team moves to Seattle and changes its name and colors completely. Ironically, it is much like what happened to Sonics fans years ago when the team moved to Oklahoma City and changed its colors and name to the Thunder. It retains the Sonics history but has really nothing to do with the Sonics. That fate would be laid upon the Kings if they move and change their name to the “Sonics” or whatever name they choose to be. My hope is that the team stays in Sacramento and is sold to a local group who will not only build a new arena but also pledge to improve the team and bring it back to its winning ways again.

The End of the NHL Lockout

On January 6^th, the NHL ended its 113 day lockout when a tentative deal was reached between the players and the owners. This was the third lockout to hit the league after ones in 1994-1995 and 2004-2005 the latter of which wiped out the entire season. The NHL was really riding a slippery slope this time after the previous work stoppages so it is good that this dispute was resolved. If the season had indeed been cancelled outright, the effects would have been devastating. The fans have been through one cancellation and were certainly not wanting to go through another one. The NHL owners and players did right by coming to an agreement and there will be labor peace for at least eight years. Despite the end of the lockout, many fans are not happy and have thought about boycotting some games in protest. Whether or not it will work remains to be seen.  While the popularity of the NHL is smaller compared to the NFL and MLB, it is still a popular sport in North America. If the NHL wants to keep its fans, it has to make a concrete effort to reach out to them. Discounts on merchandise and players signing autographs are a good thing. The NHL and its teams need to capitalize on that goodwill otherwise it will never learn from its mistakes.

My Thoughts on Doug Marrone Being Named the Bills Head Coach

On Monday January 7, the Buffalo Bills named Syracuse coach Doug Marrone their new head coach. It’s a little strange to see how this came to fruition. I saw his name mentioned as a possible candidate but didn’t think much of it. After there was a report that he was staying at Syracuse I thought, “Ok lets move on.” The Bills did interview other candidates including Oregon coach Chip Kelly and eventually made their choice of Marrone. Marrone represents a much different choice for the Bills as they have never made a college coach their head coach. As much was I wanted a head coach with experience (Lovie Smith) or an offensive minded coach (Mike McCoy), I like the choice of Marrone and what he brings to the team. As noted elsewhere it was not the retread coach route but something fresh and different.  I liked what Jerry Sullivan from the Buffalo News said, “It was not the safe choice and safe is what got them in this fix.” The enthusiasm that Doug Marrone brings is much welcomed and I’m excited to think about what he can bring to the Bills.

Shelving Stephen Strasburg: Setup for Failure?

The controversy through most of this past summer revolved around Washington Nationals pitcher Stephen Strasburg. Strasburg was drafted by the Nationals with the 1st pick of the 2009 draft and was an instant sensation as his appearances in the minor leagues drew sell-out crowds. The Nationals promoted Strasburg to the team in 2010.

Strasburg suffered an injury to his ulnar collateral ligament which required Tommy John surgery and about a year to 18 months of rehab. After pitching some in 2011, he returned full-time in 2012. The Nationals placed an innings limit on him which was rumored to be between 160 and 180 innings. He was pulled from last outing on September 8 and was immediately shutdown for the season. He ended the 2012 season with a 13-6 record, 3.16 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 197 strikeouts in 159 1/3 innings. The Nationals have already clinched a playoffs sports and as of this writing are close to clinching the NL East title.

If the Nationals were not in the playoff hunt, this would not even be news. The fact is that the Nationals are in the playoffs and are a strong World Series contender. Without their ace, how far can the Nats go? If they lose early, there will certainly be an uproar over shutting Strasburg down.

This situation reminds me of a similar one in 2006 with the Denver Broncos. Jake Plummer was the QB that year and after leading the team to a 7-2 start, he lost back-to-back games and was replaced by then rookie Jay Cutler. Cutler went 2-3 and the Broncos finished 9-7, losing the tiebreaker to the Kansas City Chiefs for the final playoff spot. The move was met with mixed reactions with some thinking that the switch was ill-advised since Plummer led the team to the AFC Championship the year before. The move that head coach Mike Shanahan made obviously backfired. Who is to day that Plummer could have gotten the team to the playoffs but he stood a better chance than a rookie.

While Washington is already in the playoffs, the questions remained how far can the team go without Strasburg? While the plan is not injure him and preserve his arm, is i worth jeopardizing the team's short-term plans? The Nationals may well make the playoffs and win the World Series in future years but that is a large unknown. Only time will tell if the Strasburg shutdown was worth it.

Eli Manning and Phillip Rivers: A 'What If' Scenario

Six months ago, New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning won his second Super Bowl and second MVP as the Giants defeated the New England Patriots. It is no doubt that he is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL today. Fellow quarterback Phillip Rivers is also considered one of the best quarterbacks in the league. He has led the San Diego Chargers to four AFC West crowns and has set numerous Charger records. Despite all that, he has not led the Chargers to the Super Bowl.

Both quarterbacks were drafted in 2004. Manning was the first overall pick by the Chargers but stated that he would not play for them. Rivers was drafted by the Giants and in a trade, Rivers went to the Chargers and Manning to the Giants. The rest, you know is history but begs the question, "Would Manning have had the same success with the Chargers as he has with the Giants?" No one really knows for sure and the same goes with Rivers. Rivers is no slouch by any means and most Charger fans would agree that he is the man to lead them to the Promised Land. It is something to think and ponder about as you look at both quarterbacks and the success that they have had.